The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has projected Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to expand between 4.00% to 4.5% in 2026.
This will be driven by continued inflation moderation and stronger non-oil sector performance, while the easing of inflation may lead to lower interest rates, encouraging private investment, particularly in thriving sectors like telecommunications and real estate.
These projections were contained in the “Review Of The Nigerian Economy In 2025 And Outlook For 2026” report released by the economic think-tank on Sunday, December 28, 2025.
According to Dr. Muda Yusuf, CPPE’s Chief Executive Officer, he declared 2025 a year of macroeconomic stabilisation for Nigeria, marking a turning point after the turbulence of early reforms.
“Looking ahead, CPPE projects GDP growth of 4.0–4.5 percent in 2026, supported by moderating inflation, stronger non-oil sector performance, and potential capital-market gains from the anticipated listing of Dangote Refinery.
“Yet risks remain: insecurity, oil volatility, high operating costs, debt pressures, and pre-election uncertainties could dampen momentum”.
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In the 2025 review, he noted that exchange-rate stability stood out as the most visible achievement, with the naira trading steadily between ₦1,440 and ₦1,500 to the US dollar. This predictability boosted business confidence, eased imported inflation, and restored clarity to investment planning. Inflation slowed dramatically, dropping from 24.48 percent in January to 14.45 percent by November, aided by currency stability and improved supply conditions.
“Business confidence surged, with many firms returning to profitability after losses in 2024. The NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Index remained positive for most of the year, underscoring investor optimism.
“Fiscal performance, however, told a mixed story. Federal revenues fell short of projections due to weaker oil prices and lower production, constraining capital expenditure. Sub-national governments fared better, delivering stronger infrastructure and social services thanks to improved internally generated revenue.
“Sectoral growth was driven by services, which accounted for 53 percent of GDP by Q3 2025. Telecommunications, finance, trade, construction, and real estate led the charge, while manufacturing remained fragile and agriculture faced persistent challenges from insecurity and low productivity.
He concluded that 2025 laid a solid foundation for stability, while 2026 could usher in a more robust growth phase if reforms are sustained and security challenges addressed.
“Overall, 2025 has established a foundation for macroeconomic stability in Nigeria, paving the way for a more optimistic outlook in 2026. Continued reform momentum and effective security management are crucial for initiating a stronger growth phase, ultimately leading to improved living standards across the nation”.
By: Babajide Okeowo
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