The acrid smell of charcoal fires is once again choking Nigerian cities and villages. As liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices hit a staggering ₦20,709 for a 12.5kg cylinder (approximately ₦1,657/kg) in May 2025 – with reports indicating ₦2,000/kg thresholds being breached in July – families face impossible choices. This represents a 32% year-on-year surge and a devastating 235% increase since 2016. The collapse in clean energy affordability isn’t just economic; it’s an ecological time bomb. Millions of households are abandoning “clean” cooking gas for deforestation-based charcoal, reversing years of environmental progress overnight.
“Gas became gold. Charcoal is our punishment for being poor,” laments Hadiza Ibrahim, a Kano mother whose asthma-stricken children now breathe toxic smoke daily. Her ₦16,500 monthly charcoal budget burns through 40% of her income – a story echoing across 75% of urban Nigerian homes.
The Price Inferno: Cooking Gas Beyond Reach
Trajectory of Collapse
Nigeria’s LPG crisis isn’t spontaneous – it’s the culmination of systemic failures. Between 2016-2020, relative stability held at approximately ₦400/kg through subsidies. The dam broke in 2021 with an 84% annual spike (₦390 to ₦719/kg) following subsidy removal. By 2024, the ₦1,500/kg benchmark was breached in May, culminating in the July 2025 milestone of ₦2,000/kg. This catastrophic pricing consumes two full days’ wages for minimum-wage earners per standard 12.5kg cylinder.
Regional disparities reveal brutal geographical inequities in energy poverty. Delta State pays ₦23,356 per cylinder while Lagos residents face ₦18,536 – a ₦4,820 gap that determines whether children breathe clean air or toxic smoke.
Triggers of the Collapse
Three interconnected factors created this perfect storm. First, the export over people paradox: despite chronic domestic shortages, 60% of Nigeria’s LPG was exported for higher profits until late 2024 export bans. Second, infrastructure paralysis cripples supply chains, with only 40% of national demand met domestically despite Nigeria’s position as holder of the world’s ninth-largest gas reserves. A $750 million investment gap in storage and transport infrastructure persists. Third, the currency implosion saw the naira lose 56% value against USD (2023-2025), making imported gas ruinously expensive as Mont Belvieu butane prices hit $436.3/mt in June 2025.
Chainsaws in the Forest: The Charcoal Catastrophe
Survival’s Dark Bargain
As gas prices soar, families face a devastating regression. Over 75% of urban households now supplement or replace gas with charcoal – mirroring rural areas where 97% depend on biomass. At ₦500/kg, charcoal appears cheaper but hides brutal hidden costs. The World Health Organization attributes 78,000 annual Nigerian deaths to indoor air pollution from solid fuels like charcoal. Women now spend 3+ hours daily foraging wood versus 30 minutes with gas – stolen time that could generate income or educate children.
Deforestation Accelerated
The environmental fallout is catastrophic and accelerating. Cameroon’s Virunga National Park provides a grim preview, losing 3,416 hectares/year to illegal charcoal production – gorilla habitats literally going up in smoke. Central Africa’s $30 million illegal charcoal trade employs 25,000 people in what environmental engineer Steve Djeutchou calls “paying people to destroy their future.” Satellite imagery now shows similar deforestation patterns emerging in Nigeria’s Cross River National Park, where illegal logging operations feed urban charcoal demand.
Systemic Failures: Why Affordability Collapsed
The Resource Curse
Nigeria’s crisis epitomizes the energy equity gap plaguing developing economies. Despite sitting on 209 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves (9th globally), the country imports 60% of LPG due to processing underinvestment. Refineries operate at just 32% capacity, perpetuating reliance on volatile global markets. This paradox of poverty amid plenty extends globally: Africa holds 60% of the world’s top-quality solar resources yet generates less solar electricity than the Netherlands.
Policy Whiplash
Government interventions have often worsened the crisis. The 2021 LPG subsidy cancellation spiked prices 20% overnight without safety nets. Subsequent 2024 VAT exemptions proved meaningless as currency collapse dwarfed benefits. Energy equity remains the neglected dimension of energy policy, with affordability metrics declining by 8% globally since 2015 while sustainability scores improved by 6%.
Global Parallels
Nigeria’s pain reflects worldwide clean energy inequities. In the United States, capacity charge spikes of 833% forced 65 million Americans toward dirtier fuels. Republican repeal of clean energy tax credits risks 22-49% higher electricity costs by 2035. Globally, 85% of clean energy investments flow to advanced economies and China, leaving developing nations – where 60% of the world’s population lives – with just 15% of funding. This investment apartheid traps nations in fossil fuel dependence despite renewable energy now being the cheapest electricity option in 90% of the world.
Solutions: Pathways Back from the Brink
Immediate Relief
Two interventions could provide rapid respite. First, a domestic supply mandate forcing Chevron and ExxonMobil to divert 50% of LPG production locally, mirroring NLNG’s 100% butane domestic commitment. Second, pay-as-you-go LPG systems eliminating ₦250,000 upfront cylinder costs. Congo’s Bboxx model demonstrates this works: adoption slashed charcoal use by 30% in Goma within three months through smart meters enabling daily micropayments.
Sustainable Fuel Shift
Biochar revolutionizes waste-to-fuel conversion. Yangambi’s agroforestry model transforms banana peels and sawdust into clean-burning biochar at half charcoal’s cost, with carbonization yields jumping from 11% to 28% using fixed ovens. Complementing this, improved cookstoves deployed in Congo cut wood consumption 40% – a model Nigeria could scale through local SMEs. Solar-powered induction cookers present another alternative, particularly viable in Nigeria’s sun-rich northern regions where solar potential exceeds 6kWh/m²/day.
Structural Overhaul
Three pillars must anchor Nigeria’s energy reset. Modular mini-plants near extraction sites could cut import dependency by 50% within five years through $5 billion investment. Forest bonds totaling $500 million could protect 1 million hectares via eco-jobs programs. A national cookstove program at $300 million implementation cost could save 15,000 lives annually from smoke-related deaths while creating 200,000 green manufacturing jobs. This aligns with global findings that every dollar invested in renewables creates three times more jobs than fossil fuels.
A Global Justice Imperative
Climate Justice Clash
The clean energy divide fuels growing Global South resistance. “Why sacrifice development for emissions we didn’t create?” demands Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, articulating the frustration of nations asked to forgo fossil fuels while wealthy economies consume disproportionate energy. The bitter irony: solar costs fell 90% in a decade, yet land barriers and import restrictions block access in developing economies. Despite renewables now offering “the lowest energy price in human history” at 1 cent/kWh in optimal locations, this revolution bypasses those most in need.
Investment Reckoning
Financial systems perpetuate energy apartheid. African countries pay 500% premiums on private loans compared to World Bank rates, with 2024 debt servicing topping $102.6 billion – more than flows into the continent in development assistance. This contrasts with Europe’s €758 billion energy consumer protection spending since 2021. The solution demands innovative finance: blended mechanisms combining public and private capital through concessional finance, sovereign guarantees, and political risk assurances to unlock the $20 billion annual investment needed for Nigeria’s gas infrastructure alone.
Reigniting Affordable Clean Energy
Nigeria’s cooking gas catastrophe epitomizes a global inflection point: economic shocks can erase decades of environmental progress in months. Yet within this crisis lie embers of hope. From Yangambi’s biochar factories turning waste to fuel, to PAYG LPG unlocking access for the poor, solutions are proven and scalable. The path forward demands three non-negotiable actions: implement a “Gas-for-Nigerians-First” policy mandating 70% domestic LPG allocation; deploy military units to guard protected forests against illegal loggers; and adopt Congo’s agroforestry models that sustain both forests and livelihoods.
As the world hurtles toward climate tipping points, Nigeria’s vast gas reserves remain keys to unlock this crisis – but only if leaders turn them toward homes rather than foreign accounts. The current distribution of renewable energy remains highly unequal, leaving millions without clean electricity. Energy poverty ends when citizens light the fire under leaders. Africa’s largest economy now faces its civilizational test: prove that clean energy justice can triumph before our last forests become cooking smoke.
