The promise was bold: remove painful fuel subsidies and rapidly pivot to cheaper, cleaner Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) vehicles. Two years after President Tinubu’s subsidy removal sent petrol prices soaring over 800% (from ₦184 to ₦1,500/litre), Nigeria’s CNG revolution has stalled. What was touted as a swift energy transition has become a nightmare for commuters—transport costs have doubled, CNG buses sit idle without fueling points, and conversion kits remain unaffordable for most. This is the harsh reality of Nigeria’s green mobility delay, where policy ambition collides with infrastructural neglect, leaving millions stranded at the crossroads of economic survival and environmental promise.
The Unfulfilled Promise
The Subsidy Shockwave
Petrol prices didn’t just climb—they exploded. Overnight, Nigerians watched pump prices leap from ₦184 to ₦488-₦550/litre in May 2023. By July 2025, that number hit a catastrophic ₦1,120-₦1,500/litre. That’s an 800% increase, gutting household budgets like a knife through butter. The government’s solution? A CNG transition pitched as “immediate relief.” Yet today, only 100,000 vehicles (0.83% of Nigeria’s 12 million vehicles) have been converted. The math is brutal: 99% of us remain chained to petrol’s price volatility.
Stranded Assets, Stranded Commuters
Abuja’s Eagle Square holds a ghost fleet—85 brand-new CNG buses from Innoson Motors, gathering dust. No fueling points. No trained operators. No plan. Meanwhile, commuters face transport costs that have doubled since 2023. Low-income workers like Lagos factory hands now walk 10-15km daily, while others risk illegal transports. The cruel irony? CNG could slash commuting costs by 66%, but the system is frozen.
| Metric | Petrol | CNG | Savings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost per 100km | ₦6,700 | ₦2,300 | 66% |
| Daily commute (30km) | ₦2,010 | ₦690 | ₦1,320 saved |
| Annual CO2 emissions | 4.6 tons | 1.4 tons | 70% cleaner |
Why the Green Shift Stalled
Infrastructure Desert
Imagine building an electric grid without power lines. That’s Nigeria’s CNG “network”: just 27 mother stations nationwide, clustered in the South. Northern states rely on “virtual pipelines”—trucks hauling gas cylinders that add 40% to costs. Abuja, the capital, has only 11 stations, and only 3 function reliably. The Abuja-Keffi corridor? One CNG station—and it’s dead. Meanwhile, Mexico’s 130 stations show how virtual pipelines can work, but Nigeria lacks even basic compression facilities.
Prohibitive Costs in a Cash-Strapped Economy
Here’s the conversion trap: ₦900,000–₦1.6 million per vehicle. That’s double Egypt’s cost and triple India’s. Why? Imported kits, zero local manufacturing. Wisdom Elijah, a Lagos transport CEO, nails it: “Operators lack ₦350k conversion capital. We need pay-as-you-drive models.” Government’s CALM Fund reached less than 5% of transporters. Mexico solved this with “discounted refills” financing—pay for conversion via fuel savings. Nigeria? Silence.
Policy Whiplash and Regulatory Gaps
VAT waivers dangle via executive orders, not laws. Investors flee, fearing policy U-turns. Safety scandals erupt when substandard kits explode—yet no national certification exists. Contrast Mexico’s strict “official standards” for conversions and stations. Nigeria’s 2025 regulatory “update”? Still pending, while states like Abia pivot to electric buses, fracturing the strategy.
Commuters in the Crossfire
The Human Toll
“I spend ₦1,000 daily on buses now—up from ₦400. Breakfast vanished from my budget.” Aisha’s story is the anthem of millions. Keke NAPEP drivers—68% in a July 2025 survey—abandoned tricycles for construction labor. Why? Petrol consumes 70% of earnings. Abuja’s traffic dropped 39%, but forced walking exposes commuters to 42°C heat and diesel fumes. The subsidy pain was sold as short-term; for Aisha, it’s a permanent scar.
Industry Paralysis
Transport operators drown in petrol costs. Diesel alone eats 70% of revenues versus 40% pre-subsidy. Result? 30% of interstate buses now rust in depots. Food prices spiked 45% as transporters charge farmers ₦25,000 to move tomatoes from Kaduna to Lagos—triple the 2023 rate. The CNG promise wasn’t just about clean air; it was a lifeline for Nigeria’s entire supply chain.
Global Lessons
Mexico’s Regulatory Blueprint
Mexico’s 130 CNG stations thrive on three pillars: Strict Standards with specialized workshops and federal oversight ensure safe, 1-2 day conversions. Financing Innovation allows kit costs to be recovered via fuel savings—pay ₦200 less per liter funds your conversion. Virtual Pipelines mean trucks compress and deliver gas without fixed pipelines, bypassing infrastructure gaps. Nigeria’s “11 stations” disgrace looks even grimmer here.
India’s Demand Surge Strategy
When Delhi banned petrol vehicles older than 15 years in 2025, CNG sales exploded 300%. How? State-backed loans at 5% interest, repaid over 36 months via fuel savings. “Clean Air Credits” subsidized fares for low-income riders using CNG buses. Nigeria’s free conversion promise? Still vaporware.
Pathways Out of the Gridlock
Immediate Commuter Relief
Clean Air Credits can steal India’s playbook—subsidize CNG bus fares for low-income workers via verified smart cards. Mobile Refueling Units could deploy 500 “CNG Trucks” to high-volume routes like Lagos-Ibadan and Abuja-Kaduna. No stations? Bring the gas to the buses.
Fixing the Foundation
Localize or Collapse means partnering with Innoson in Nnewi to make kits. This could slash costs by 60% (₦360k, not ₦900k). Mexico’s cost drop was driven by local competition. Skills Blitz should train 5,000 technicians via NDE/NYP programs. Certify welders for cylinder safety—transform mechanics into green engineers.
Policy Surgery
Lock Incentives in Law demands no more executive-order VAT waivers. Pass the CNG Transition Act guaranteeing tax breaks for 10 years. Safety First requires mandating certification for all kits. Public demo centers showing CNG crash tests could prove it’s safer than petrol.
Community-Led Revolutions
Keke CNG Clusters would let transport unions pool funds—convert 100 tricycles monthly in Kano/Onitsha. Savings fund the next wave. USSD Savings Calculator could let drivers text a code to see: “You save ₦1,320 daily vs. petrol.” Turn drivers into evangelists.
From Stalled Start to Green Acceleration
Nigeria’s green mobility delay isn’t a technical failure—it’s a betrayal of trust. We swallowed subsidy removal for a cleaner, cheaper future. Instead, we got idle buses and ₦1,500/litre petrol. But Mexico’s 130 stations and India’s financing tricks prove this is fixable. With 208 trillion cubic feet of gas, Nigeria’s problem isn’t scarcity—it’s execution. Localize kits. Lock policies. Listen to commuters like Aisha. The CNG revolution isn’t dead; it’s waiting for leaders brave enough to fuel it.
Key Takeaway: Nigeria doesn’t need pity—it needs action. As Mexico shows, virtual pipelines and localized kits can break the logjam. Our commuters have suffered enough; it’s time to deliver the future they were promised.
