Tinubu Performance and the National Mood
You’ve probably seen the headlines—“Tinubu performance” has become shorthand for Nigeria’s current turning point. On one hand, the administration presents bold economic and fiscal reforms as the launchpad for a national resurgence. On the other, voices like Labour Party’s Yusuf Datti Baba‑Ahmed argue that everyday Nigerians haven’t felt a positive ripple—quite the opposite.
In late May 2024, Baba‑Ahmed didn’t mince words. He said under Tinubu’s leadership, insecurity is on the rise, the economy is faltering, and corruption is flourishing. He described a government failing its own campaign promises and pushing millions into hardship.
Here’s the contrast that sets our conversation: Tinubu’s team highlights GDP growth, reduced deficits, and rising oil output. But for many Nigerians, the reality is soaring prices, insecurity, and shrinking opportunity. That tension is where this article lands. We’ll walk through both the government’s narrative and Baba‑Ahmed’s critique. No fluff. No padding. Just straight talk about why, despite the fanfare around “Tinubu performance,” a large part of the country still feels left behind.
Who is Baba-Ahmed?
Let’s get clear on who’s raising the alarm: Yusuf Datti Baba‑Ahmed. Born in July 1969 in Zaria, Kaduna State, he grew up in a scholastic household; his father was a respected Mauritanian Islamic scholar. Baba‑Ahmed has a standout academic record—economics degrees from Maiduguri, an MBA from Wales, and a PhD from Westminster. He’s also the brains behind Baze University in Abuja.
Politically, he’s been a presence since 2003 as a House of Reps member, famously opposing Obasanjo’s move for a third term. He briefly won a Senate seat in 2011, though it was later overturned. He juked through bids for party tickets and even became Peter Obi’s running mate in 2022’s presidential race under the Labour Party. Today, he’s known for integrity, anti-corruption stances, and outspoken criticism of those in power—traits that give weight to his assessment of Tinubu’s performance.
Tinubu’s Key Reforms (The Government’s Perspective)
Fuel Subsidy Removal & FX Unification
Tinubu scrapped petrol subsidies and unified foreign exchange rates, aiming to patch massive financial holes and correct currency distortions. Official channels closed the gap between official and black-market rates.
Monetary Policy Discipline
The Central Bank stopped printing money to fund deficits, aiming to stabilize inflation and currency volatility. The result: a stronger naira environment and clearer monetary policy.
Fiscal Consolidation & Tax Reforms
Deficit dropped from something like 5.4% of GDP to around 3%. Tax revenue climbed as reforms sought to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio towards 18%, funding infrastructure, health, and education.
Oil Sector Revival
Output rose from close to 1 million to about 1.5 million barrels per day, aided by better field controls and anti-theft efforts—attracting fresh investor attention.
Economic Growth & Vision for 2025
GDP has grown at around 3 to 3.8%, the best outside COVID recovery in years. Inflation remains high, but the government wants to cut it dramatically by boosting local production of food and pharmaceuticals.
Baba-Ahmed’s Critique: Quality of Life Still Lagging
Burgeoning Cost of Living
Inflation is at multi-decade highs—food inflation over 40%—while petrol prices quadrupled. Families report empty cupboards and voiced hunger directly in protests.
Insecurity’s Heavy Toll
Kidnappings and banditry continue across regions. Farmers are too worried to tend their fields, and rural livelihoods crumble under fear.
Wages Erased by Inflation
While the minimum wage rose to ₦70,000, inflation wiped out its value. University students and workers struggle with basic needs—some eating only once daily.
Ineffective Palliatives
Subsidy removal was followed by meager palliatives—rice bags and cash transfers—that barely scratched the surface. They felt like cover-up tools, not relief.
Public Sentiment & Civil Response
Mass Protests
In August 2024, Nigeria saw #EndBadGovernance rallies in almost every major city. People chanted “We are hungry” and demanded subsidy returns. The government responded with tear gas, live fire, and arrests; at least a dozen died.
Rights Backlash
Civil rights groups accused the government of authoritarian moves. Treason charges for protesters drew warnings that democratic space is shrinking.
General Strike
The 2024 May–July labor strike shut down airports, banks, hospitals, and schools. The final agreement? A ₦70,000 minimum wage—but citizens feel it’s just scratching the surface amid runaway inflation.
Culture Pushback
The artist Eedris Abdulkareem released “Tell Your Papa,” criticizing Tinubu’s leadership. The song was banned—highlighting tensions over free expression.
Everyday Voices
Citizens captured the mood: “Hunger…brought me out. I don’t have money to buy fuel…there’s total bad government.” From streets to social media, the message was clear: the reforms aren’t helping—they’re hurting.
Contradictions in Official Narratives
Selective Data Usage
The government’s story relies heavily on macroeconomic figures—GDP growth, fiscal deficit reduction, and a strengthened naira. But these metrics often mask the reality on the ground. While GDP may rise, unemployment remains high, and underemployment is rampant. Baba-Ahmed points to the fact that millions remain jobless or stuck in unstable gig roles, barely surviving on piecemeal earnings.
Palliatives vs Sustainable Relief
The Tinubu administration rolled out “palliatives” like ₦25,000 monthly cash transfers for a few months and distributed bags of rice. But these gestures are one-off and poorly monitored. Baba-Ahmed and many civil groups argue that they serve as optics for international praise, not long-term fixes. Nigerians say it themselves—“How does one bag of rice solve joblessness or skyrocketing rent?”
Minimum Wage Realities
The ₦70,000 minimum wage announcement made headlines. But the real issue is whether private employers and state governments can or will implement it. Meanwhile, market women, okada riders, factory workers, and graduates hustling for N-Power slots remain financially stranded. Prices climb weekly while wages stay static or nonexistent for the majority.
Corruption, Nepotism, and Governance Concerns
Appointments Based on Loyalty
Baba-Ahmed calls out what he sees as a trend of political patronage under Tinubu—key appointments allegedly going to allies or party financiers instead of seasoned technocrats. This isn’t a new Nigerian problem, but it clashes with Tinubu’s reformist branding. Critics say merit has taken a back seat to political IOUs.
Financial Transparency Gaps
Despite the emphasis on fiscal discipline, questions swirl about how funds are allocated and spent. The ₦5 billion shared with states for palliatives, for example, came with no detailed public breakdown. Nigerians are demanding where the money went. Baba-Ahmed frames this as proof that old habits—opaque governance—still thrive under a different label.
Oil Revenue Accountability
With oil production rising again, the natural question is: Where is the money going? Subsidy savings and increased revenue were supposed to fund development. But outside of big speeches and white-paper launches, tangible changes in infrastructure, healthcare, or public schools remain scarce. This perceived disconnect has fueled growing skepticism about Tinubu’s stewardship.
Inflation, Food Crisis, and Economic Squeeze
Cost of Essentials
Inflation crossed 30% nationwide, with food inflation over 40%—the worst in two decades. A bag of rice costs over ₦70,000. Bread, eggs, and yams have tripled. Rent is out of reach for young families. Even middle-income earners are defaulting on school fees and hospital bills.
Small Businesses Suffocate
Artisans, food vendors, and shop owners can’t keep up. Fuel price hikes and naira volatility have made it almost impossible to stock goods at predictable prices. Many MSMEs have shut down or laid off workers. The informal economy—Nigeria’s lifeline—is gasping for air.
Healthcare and Education Suffer
Doctors keep leaving the country, citing poor pay and lack of equipment. Strikes in public universities linger for months. Baba-Ahmed flags this as proof that reforms, no matter how well-written, aren’t reaching the sectors that matter most to Nigerians’ quality of life.
Security Failures and Human Impact
Banditry and Farmer Displacement
In Zamfara, Kaduna, and parts of Niger, bandits operate openly. Farmers can’t go to their fields without paying “protection fees” to armed groups. These conditions choke food production and fuel urban migration. Baba-Ahmed blames the federal government’s inconsistency and lack of coordination with state security agencies.
Kidnapping Surge
From Abuja outskirts to the South East and across highways, kidnapping is back with a vengeance. Ransoms go unpaid for weeks. Victims recount being held in forests without food. The police often arrive late or not at all. The government insists they’re on top of it—but the statistics and victims tell another story.
Fear and Migration
The dream of japa (emigration) has exploded again. From students to software engineers, many Nigerians see leaving as the only way out. It’s not about ambition—it’s about survival. Baba-Ahmed labels this a symptom of government failure, not lack of patriotism.
Media Control and Dissent Suppression
Clamping Down on Expression
Artists like Eedris Abdulkareem face bans. Protesters face tear gas and jail time. TV stations self-censor to avoid losing licenses. Baba-Ahmed compares this to military-era tactics. A government confident in its performance, he says, shouldn’t fear scrutiny or satire.
Digital Surveillance Concerns
There’s growing unease over the use of cybercrime laws to arrest critics on social media. Activists warn that dissent is being repackaged as hate speech or incitement. The result? A chilling effect that leaves fewer voices questioning policies that directly affect millions.
Civil Space Shrinking
CSOs and labour unions have reported intimidation. Even peaceful NGO gatherings are now subject to sudden venue cancellations or surveillance. Baba-Ahmed sees this as a systemic strategy to silence organised resistance, especially from groups that might mobilise voters or protestors in future elections.
The Bigger Question: What Does Progress Look Like?
Macroeconomic Gains vs Human Reality
No one disputes that some of Tinubu’s reforms aim at long-term stability. But Baba-Ahmed argues—and many Nigerians agree—that reforms without safeguards hurt more than they help. It’s not enough to fix spreadsheets if people can’t afford food, safety, or shelter.
Rebuilding Trust
Trust in the federal government has eroded, especially among youth. The burden is now on Tinubu’s team to move beyond PR-driven town halls and actually listen to Nigerians’ daily pain points. Good governance isn’t about announcements—it’s about results felt in homes, classrooms, clinics, and markets.
The Need for Inclusive Reform
Policies must be people-centered, not donor-approved or IMF-modeled. Baba-Ahmed insists that real economic reform must involve labour unions, local communities, and the informal sector. Without inclusive design, even the most ambitious reforms risk collapsing under resistance or indifference.
Where Does This Leave Nigeria?
“Tinubu performance” may read well on a technical policy brief, but the day-to-day reality for most Nigerians remains harsh. The cost of survival is up. Insecurity is rising. Institutions are weakened. Baba-Ahmed’s message isn’t merely political—it’s personal, urgent, and echoed by millions across the country.
This is not about undermining government. It’s about demanding that reforms translate into relief. Nigerians aren’t asking for miracles—they’re asking for affordable food, safe streets, fair wages, and leaders who listen. Until those basic needs are met, no amount of growth statistics will feel like progress.
As citizens, we owe it to ourselves to question loudly, protest peacefully, and vote consciously. And as leadership, Tinubu’s administration owes it to the people to do more than talk. History will remember this era not for what was promised—but for what was delivered. Or what wasn’t.
