A Whispered Rebellion
“Even advice is taken as anti-party… You cannot talk truth to power in APC.” The stunning accusation by former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, has ignited Nigeria’s political landscape. Days after his June 29 resignation from the All Progressives Congress, Lawal detonated a bombshell during a TVC News interview: sitting APC governors and top leaders are clandestinely supporting an opposition coalition to unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027. This revelation exposes unprecedented levels of APC disunity, revealing a party at war with itself despite public displays of control. Lawal’s defiance—”I don’t need anybody’s permission to do the right thing for Nigeria”—frames a moral crusade against a system he calls “built on deceit and intimidation”.
Anatomy of APC Disunity: Roots of the Rift
Leadership Crisis & Suppression of Dissent
Lawal’s resignation letter was merely a formality. In reality, he’d been “working against the APC from within for a long time,” leveraging what he dubs the “Wike template”: remaining formally in the party while sabotaging it. The APC, he asserts, operates through “intimidation and bullying into silence,” where internal criticism is branded as treachery. This toxic environment “frustrated many” who found they could not “advise or offer corrective perspectives without reprisal”. The absence of internal democracy has transformed Nigeria’s ruling party into an echo chamber—a pressure cooker accelerating APC disunity.
The Tinubu Disillusionment Factor
A critical pivot in Lawal’s narrative is the profound betrayal felt by Tinubu’s early allies. He revealed that former loyalists feel abandoned by Tinubu’s governance style and are actively seeking alternatives: “People who were hitherto in APC, allies of Tinubu, have been disappointed in the way he has chosen to run his government or allow others to run his government”. This erosion of core support signals a dangerous phase where disillusionment festers at the highest levels. Lawal framed his opposition to Tinubu’s 2023 Muslim-Muslim ticket as “prophetic,” arguing it alienated critical voter blocs and foreshadowed governance failures.
The “Automatic Ticket” Syndrome
Recent defections to the APC? Lawal dismisses them as acts of political survival, not endorsement. Governors join the ruling party because “the president has given himself an automatic ticket… no other candidate will be allowed to raise their head” in future primaries. This elimination of internal competition forces politicians to prioritize self-preservation over ideology—a structural flaw deepening APC disunity. Lawal observed that while governors defect, their constituents refuse to follow: “The governors are moving, but nobody is moving with them; the people are not”.
The Shadow Coalition: How APC Governors Are Allegedly Undermining Their Own Party
The Governors’ Whisper Network
Lawal’s most explosive claim: multiple APC governors confided in him about secretly backing the opposition coalition. Though unnamed, their motivations include dissatisfaction with Tinubu’s leadership and pessimism about the party’s direction. “Some might not be brave or bold enough to do it the way I have, but there are very many—some tell me, including some governors”. This covert rebellion—where state executives publicly pledge loyalty while privately plotting defection—exposes APC disunity at its most corrosive. One governor cited by Lawal fears Tinubu “can rig them out” despite their endorsements, making their support a transactional farce.
Defections as Political Camouflage
The wave of politicians joining APC reflects desperation rather than conviction, according to Lawal. Governors understand that Tinubu’s administration “wrote results to become what they are” and could similarly manipulate opposition primaries. Their defections are preemptive strikes to secure “automatic tickets” in a system where competitive politics has been extinguished. This elite maneuvering creates a stark disconnect with ordinary citizens who refuse to follow their governors into the ruling party—highlighting how APC disunity stems from self-serving interests rather than ideological shifts.
Weaponizing Institutional Distrust
Lawal alleges the ruling party uses state power to crush dissent, creating a climate where governors become complicit in their own subjugation. The perception that Tinubu controls electoral outcomes forces them into public loyalty while privately seeking alternatives. This institutionalized distrust turns party machinery into a weapon against its own members, with Lawal warning that governors endorsing Tinubu know he “can rig them out” despite their support.
Opposition Coalition: The APC’s Homegrown Threat
Structure & Strategy: Unity as the Only Weapon
The opposition coalition—identified as ADC-led—operates on a non-negotiable principle: “No one person can defeat an incumbent government”. Lawal clarified it is not an Atiku project but a fusion of forces including Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, and others. Crucially, participants agreed to “lock political ambitions down in a cupboard”—suppressing personal aspirations to prioritize defeating the APC. “Peter Obi understands that with his Obedient movement, he cannot win this election on a standalone basis. Ameachi understands, and Atiku too; we must have a coalition,” Lawal emphasized, revealing that even Atiku remained silent in early coalition meetings until specifically invited to speak.
Exploiting APC Disunity
The coalition actively courts disillusioned APC members, leveraging insider access and resentment. Lawal framed this as ethical retaliation: “I’m learning a template from APC… remaining in one party and working for another”. The APC disunity thus fuels the opposition’s recruitment strategy, creating a pipeline of covert sympathizers within the ruling establishment. This insider knowledge provides strategic advantages in understanding APC vulnerabilities and mobilizing resources for the 2027 contest.
The Fragility Question
Can this coalition survive Nigeria’s history of ambition-driven implosions? Lawal acknowledged internal risks but insisted unity is non-negotiable: “We know the risks of fragmentation. But we also know we must unite to defeat APC”. All contenders reportedly agreed to back a consensus candidate—a pact that will face severe stress as election approaches. The coalition’s survival hinges on maintaining discipline among historically rival factions and preventing personal ambitions from resurfacing prematurely.
Implications: Nigeria’s Political Future at a Crossroads
For the APC: Erosion from Within
The party faces an existential threat beyond electoral loss. With senior figures like Lawal exposing internal rot and governors allegedly sabotaging it, APC disunity risks triggering three cascading crises: First, a legitimacy collapse if Lawal’s claims gain public traction. Second, covert campaign sabotage through leaked strategies and resources diverted to opponents. Third, a wave of bolder defections if the party’s intimidation tactics lose effectiveness. The perception of automatic tickets may temporarily suppress internal challenges but fuels long-term resentment among sidelined members.
For Nigerian Democracy: A System Under Strain
Lawal’s narrative depicts democracy crippled by three interlocking pathologies: The suppression of dissent within major parties starves governance of corrective feedback. Elite-centric defections—where governors switch parties for tickets rather than ideology—erode voter trust. Coalition dependency reflects political fragmentation so severe that only unstable mega-alliances can challenge incumbents. These dynamics privilege short-term tactical maneuvering over principled policy debates, hollowing out democratic substance.
Public Reaction: Cynicism & Hope
Responses to Lawal’s revelations reveal Nigeria’s political polarization. Critics dismiss him as a “grass cutter” referencing past corruption allegations, while others demand fundamental reforms: “Don’t run money-induced primaries but people-oriented ones”. This mirrors the central tension in Nigerian politics: citizens desperately crave change but profoundly distrust all political actors. The coalition’s viability hinges on transcending this cynicism by presenting a credible governance alternative rather than merely exploiting APC disunity.
The Gathering Storm
Babachir Lawal’s allegations are more than political theater—they are a biopsy of APC disunity at terminal velocity. When governors of a ruling party allegedly conspire with opponents, when a former SGF declares he long ago “worked against” his own party, and when disillusionment infects the President’s inner circle, a reckoning is inevitable. The 2027 battle lines are drawn not between parties but within them. Whether this fuels a democratic renaissance or deeper instability hinges on two questions: Can the opposition coalition transcend ego? And will the APC confront the rot within? As Lawal warned: “You need to replace the non-performing party”. Nigeria’s political stability now depends on who heeds that call.
