Recent developments within the political camp of a former governor of Kano state and national leader of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, have raised concerns amongst political observers as to whether his political empire is crumbling before his very eyes.
This followed the formal resignation of Governor Abba Yusuf from the NNPP with commissioners and many members of Kano State House of Assembly to the All Progressives Congress(APC).
Kwankwaso, through his Kwankwasiyya group had at one point or the other maintained a firm grip on Kano’s political firmament.
At the return of democracy in 1999, the Kano political kingpin who had a stint as a member of the House of Representatives in the botched third republic was elected governor on the platform of the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) with Dr Umar Ganduje as his deputy.
He was however defeated by Ibrahim Shekarau of the defunct All Nigerian Peoples Party(NNPP) at the 2003 general election.
However, then President Olusegun Obasanjo appointed him the minister of defence. He was elected the governor of Kano state for the second time during the 2011 general election still on the platform of PDP.
Both in his two terms as governor from 1999 to 2003 and 2011-2015, Kwankwaso was deputised by his long time political ally, Ganduje.
Towards the end of his last tenure, he joined the then newly formed APC with his deputy Ganduje in 2014.
Kwankwaso contested the APC presidential primary election in 2014 but lost to late former President Muhammadu Buhari. He was the first runner up.
He later settled for the Kano Central Senatorial election and won in the 2015 general elections while his deputy succeeded him as governor in the same polls.
However, Ganduje and Kwankwaso were entangled in a battle royale over the control of APC structures in the state which the incumbent governor eventually won over his predecessor.
As this love lost between the former Kano governor and his deputy ensued unabated, Kwankwaso pitched his tent with the NNPP and became its presidential candidate in the 2023 general election that he lost.
Be that as it may, the leader of Kwankwasiya found another loyal ally in Abba Yusuf whom he supported to emerge the governor of Kano at the 2023 polls.
Apart from the governor, the NNPP won the majority of seats in the Kano State House of Assembly, and some seats in the National Assembly.
However, history repeated itself at the weekend with the dumping of NNPP by Governor Yusuf, followed by aides, 22 members of the Kano State House of Assembly and eight of their colleagues in the House of Representatives.
The latest development led by Governor Yusuf and the one done by former Governor Ganduje elicited the question as to whether Kwanwaso political empire is crumbling.
Though appearing undeterred,
Kwankwaso, declared January 23 as the ‘World Day of Betrayal’ following the defection of Governor Yusuf, alongside key elected officials in the state from NNPP.
Kwankwaso made the declaration on Saturday when he addressed members of various Kwankwasiyya groups who visited his residence on Miller Road, Kano, to reaffirm their loyalty to him amid the unfolding political scenario in the state.
However, minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, believes that Kwankwaso’s political prospects are dwindling in light of his losing Kano. In a detailed analysis on X, the minister argued that the former Kano governor’s refusal to accept APC’s offer to join the ruling party puts his future presidential hopes in jeopardy.
Interestingly, some former national leaders of NNPP also believe the Kwankwaso political structure as enshrined in NNPP was always doomed for destruction.
In a joint press statement signed by Professor Rufai Ahmed Alkali, former National Chairman of the party; Senator Suleiman Othman Hunkuyi, former National Organising Secretary; and Professor Ben Angure, former National Legal Adviser, the leaders said the governor’s decision must be viewed against the backdrop of prolonged internal instability within the party.
Analysts react
However, the Arewa Youth Forum for Peace and Security has dismissed claims that Kwankwaso’s political influence is waning, insisting that his grassroots popularity across Kano State remains intact.
Speaking in an exclusive interview with LEADERSHIP, the forum’s representative, Comrade Salihu Dantata, said there was “no way” Kwankwaso’s political dynasty could be described as being under threat. He pointed to the massive crowd that recently welcomed Kwankwaso on his arrival in Kano as evidence of his continued relevance.
“You can see the cheering crowd right in front of his house. We have to wait until 2027 before anyone can say otherwise,” Dantata said.
He argued that recent political realignments involving key figures such as Abdullahi Ganduje, Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, and others have not weakened Kwankwaso’s political standing, stressing that none of them possesses the level of political charisma associated with the former governor.
According to him, Kwankwaso’s appeal is rooted in what he described as the “politics of the people,” rather than money-driven politics.
“Kwankwaso does not play politics of money; he plays politics of the people,” Dantata said.
He attributed the sustained loyalty of Kwankwaso’s supporters to his record in office, particularly his emphasis on human capital development. Dantata recalled that during Kwankwaso’s tenure as governor, hundreds of young people were sponsored to study professional courses at both undergraduate and postgraduate levels, within and outside Nigeria.
“Even with the strength and wave of the federal government behind the incumbent governor, Kwankwaso’s grassroots political support and network can still prevail,” he said.
Similarly, a political science lecturer at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Dr. Christian Okeke, dismissed claims that the defection of Governor Yusuf from the NNPP to the APC signals the decline of the Kwankwassiyya political movement.
According to Dr. Okeke, “Kwankwassiyya is a strong political movement that remains as strong as ever. The defection of Governor Yusuf, a product of the movement and a close associate of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is inconsequential and has no effect on its strength.”
He added, “Kwankwaso is bigger than any individual governor. He has successfully navigated state and national politics and continues to wield significant political influence.”
On the defection itself, Dr. Okeke expressed disappointment, noting that “whatever the problem is between him and his godfather, abandoning his benefactor is not the ideal course. I had expected him to make sacrifices and not take sides with the enemies of his benefactor. Many people will say it is a clear case of betrayal, and they will be right, even though the governor has his freedom of association.”
Commenting on the political implications for Kano State, Dr. Okeke said, “The defection has made Kano a state to watch in 2027. Interesting days lie ahead.”
A political analyst, Suleiman Gimba, said while Kwankwaso’s political empire may not be collapsing, it is clearly facing significant pressure following the defection of Governor Yusuf.
According to Gimba, the governor’s decision to defect—and the justification that aligning with the President is necessary to attract federal projects—highlights deeper structural problems within Nigeria’s federal and party systems rather than a definitive decline in Kwankwaso’s political influence.
“Kwankwaso’s political empire is not necessarily crumbling, but it is undeniably under strain,” Gimba said. “The argument that development depends on alignment with the centre exposes a fundamental dysfunction in Nigeria’s political structure.”
He noted that constitutionally, governance and development are rights owed to citizens, not privileges granted based on partisan loyalty, citing Section 14(2)(b) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended).
However, he observed that Nigerian politics often rewards proximity to central power over institutional performance.
“This pattern aligns with what political scholars like Richard A. Joseph described as Nigeria’s prebendal political order, where access to state power determines political survival,” Gimba added.
Drawing a comparison between Kwankwaso and former Rivers State governor Nyesom Wike, Gimba said both figures share similar ambition but differ significantly in their access to federal power.
“What differentiates them is access to the centre. Wike’s ability to discipline his successors was reinforced by federal backing, while Kwankwaso’s influence has largely depended on mass mobilisation and grassroots legitimacy rather than institutional protection,” he said.
He warned that this dynamic poses a serious challenge to democratic accountability, as alignment with central authority often overrides constitutional autonomy.
Gimba argued that Governor Yusuf’s defection does not erase Kwankwaso’s relevance but rather tests the durability of a political movement built primarily on personal loyalty.
“His relevance ahead of the 2027 elections will depend on two critical factors: the credibility of the electoral process under an unreformed Electoral Act 2022, and his willingness to evolve from godfather-style politics into institutional leadership,” he said.
Speaking with LEADERSHIP, the Executive Director of the Women’s Inclusion, Empowerment and Leadership Development Initiative (WIELD-I), Comrade Amarachi Evangel, said that while the defection could be viewed as a significant setback, it should not be interpreted as the end of Kwankwaso’s political relevance.
“While the reported defection of Governor Yusuf would be a significant setback, it does not automatically mean Kwankwaso’s political empire is crumbling,” Amarachi said.
She explained that Nigeria’s political environment remains fluid, with shifting alliances and evolving power dynamics, adding that political influence goes beyond party control and electoral victories.
