A seismic shift is tearing through Nigeria’s political landscape. Nasir El-Rufai, the architect of President Bola Tinubu’s northern strategy in 2023, stood before supporters and dropped a bombshell. That viral moment crystallized a mutiny within the ruling All Progressives Congress, as former President Muhammadu Buhari’s closest allies defected to the opposition African Democratic Congress. Their mission is to forge a coalition with Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi and block Tinubu’s reelection.
This is Nigeria’s most significant realignment since the APC itself toppled the PDP in 2015. The ADC now hosts a government-in-waiting led by ex-Senate President David Mark and ex-Osun Governor Rauf Aregbesola, aiming to leverage Tinubus plummeting popularity amid economic agony and institutional decay. Beneath the grand ambitions lie existential questions about whether this coalition can survive its internal contradictions and whether the APC’s foundational cracks will finally shatter its unity.
The APC’s Cracks Beneath the Surface
The APC was born in 2013 as a marriage of convenience between Tinubu’s southwestern Action Congress of Nigeria, Buhari’s northern Congress for Progressive Change, and the All Nigeria Peoples Party. This fragile alliance masked deep ideological and regional divides. For a decade, shared power ambitions papered over tensions, but Tinubu’s 2023 victory exposed the rot.
The Breaking Points
Tinubu’s choice of Kashim Shettima as VP alienated Christian conservatives and northern moderates, fracturing the party’s national appeal. The loss of Buhari’s northern strongholds—Kano, Kaduna, and Katsina—proved eroded trust in his leadership. The ex-Kaduna governor’s ministerial nomination was scrapped over disputed security reports, igniting an all-out war with Tinubu’s inner circle.
Factional Warfare
Buhari’s loyalists, including El-Rufai and Rotimi Amaechi, defected to the ADC following post-2023 marginalization and policy exclusion. Tinubu loyalists like APC Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje and Vice President Shettima now control the party machinery but face accusations of enabling a southern cabal’s stranglehold. Buhari himself remains symbolically loyal to the APC, but his refusal to stop associates from defecting speaks volumes.
The Rebel Alliance: Buhari’s Inner Circle Joins the ADC Exodus
The ADC coalition is a reunion of Tinubu’s disillusioned kingmakers. Their defections carry lethal weight. Nasir El-Rufai, the mastermind of Buhari’s 2015 northern sweep, is now mobilizing governors and youth networks against Tinubu while hedging bets with a backup party. Rotimi Amaechi, Buhari’s ex-Transport Minister who delivered the South-South, resigned from the APC, declaring Nigeria destroyed and calling for a movement, not just a party. Former Attorney-General Abubakar Malami and ex-Aviation Minister Hadi Sirika bring insider knowledge of Tinubu’s legal vulnerabilities and institutional manipulation, though Sirika later denied joining the ADC.
The Coalition Calculus
Atiku and Obi’s combined 2023 vote share was 54%—dwarfing Tinubu’s 37%. With Buhari’s network targeting Tinubu’s weak northern flank, the ADC aims to replicate the APC’s 2015 upset. But Amaechi’s warning hangs heavy about the need for citizens to rise against elite domination, citing mass protests in Bangladesh and Kenya as models. The coalition appointed David Mark as interim National Chairman and Rauf Aregbesola as National Secretary, signaling federal readiness despite internal objections from ADC founder Dumebi Kachikwu, who branded the coalition geriatrics hijacking the party.
APC in Denial: Public Confidence vs. Internal Carnage
While APC spokesman Felix Morka boasts that the party’s prospects have never been better, its foundations are ablaze. At a Northeast stakeholders’ meeting in Gombe, APC Chair Ganduje was physically attacked for endorsing Tinubu’s 2027 bid without securing support for Vice President Shettima. Security forces rescued him from furious delegates. Tinubu’s team deliberately excluded Shettima from his endorsement, exposing deep North-East alienation. A Yoruba Ronu Leadership Forum insider confirmed northern heavyweights can no longer stomach the southern cabal’s stranglehold.
Hypocrisy Exposed
Labour Party Chair Nenadi Usman mocked Tinubu’s hypocrisy after he celebrated opposition disarray. Tinubu’s own June 12 Democracy Day speech ridiculed opponents as sinking ships—weeks before Ganduje’s near-lynching exposed APC’s fragility. The Presidency dismissed defectors as serial losers motivated by personal grudges, with Special Adviser Bayo Onanuga singling out Amaechi, Malami, and Sirika as ambitious individuals estranged from the APC.
The ADC’s Six Hurdles to Survival
The rebel alliance faces brutal headwinds. Legitimacy wars rage as ADC founder Dumebi Kachikwu slammed the coalition for hijacking the party, vowing to challenge the new leadership in court. Atiku and Obi’s power struggle simmers, with Obi’s Obidient youth movement resisting second-fiddle status and LP’s Datti Baba-Ahmed warning that defeating Tinubu requires unthinkable sacrifice, not ambition.
Structural Challenges
Tinubu is courting Rabiu Kwankwaso and may dump Shettima for a Kwankwaso VP ticket to split the North. The ADC faces a resource gulf, relying on defectors’ networks while the APC commands state funds and INEC influence. INEC’s delay in processing 122 new party registration bids, including groups like I Love Nigeria, complicates backup plans. El-Rufai revealed the coalition might register a new party as an alternative to counter APC infiltration into the ADC, citing threats of EFCC investigations against defectors. An ideological void plagues the coalition, united only by anti-Tinubu fury without policy coherence. Amaechi admitted their focus isn’t policy but stopping state capture.
Time Crunch
With 19 months until polls, integrating structures across 36 states seems impossible. A survey by the Africa Polling Institute showed 83% of Nigerians distrust the Tinubu government, but converting this into votes requires unprecedented coalition discipline.
2027 Scenarios: War of Attrition or Democratic Reset?
Three paths loom for Nigeria. Tinubu could leverage state machinery—patronage, INEC, and security agencies—to co-opt rebels or rig results. His aides whisper about his ability to survive backlash, citing the Muslim-Muslim ticket controversy. If economic collapse persists and the coalition unites, a 2015-style upset could occur. David Mark frames this as stopping full-blown civilian dictatorship. APC could trigger defections or legal technicalities to fracture the opposition, as hinted by El-Rufai’s backup party plan. Northern governor defections, voter apathy, and Tinubu’s health are wild cards.
The Stakes
Analysts emphasize that the ADC must replicate the APC’s 2013 merger discipline. The 2013 coalition was built on selflessness and national interest, with Tinubu waiting his turn. The current coalition lacks a unifying figure like Buhari, who commanded grassroots trust. The Presidency argues the ADC has no ideological cause since power already rests with the region rightfully due.
Nigeria’s Democracy at a Crossroads
History’s irony is brutal. Tinubu, who engineered the coalition that ended PDP’s 16-year rule, now faces his own Frankenstein’s monster. His mockery of opposition disarray echoes as Ganduje flees rioters and Buhari’s generals defect. This battle transcends power—it concerns Nigeria’s democratic soul. Will 2027 deepen state capture under APC, or birth a fragile reset via ADC? As hunger and insecurity rage, Amaechi’s words resonate about citizens crushing elite domination. The clock ticks toward a survival referendum—for Tinubu, the coalition, and Nigeria itself.
