Former Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu, Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, has cautioned that the All Progressives Congress (APC) could lose the 2027 elections if it depends solely on defections and political structures without addressing its poor performance and public perception.
Speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today on Tuesday, Baba-Ahmed argued that defections from opposition parties do not automatically translate into electoral victory. He stressed that the APC must reconnect with ordinary Nigerians and ensure credible elections.
In recent months, several governors, including Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), Douye Diri (Bayelsa), Peter Mbah (Enugu), Agbu Kefas (Taraba), and Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers), have defected to the APC, alongside other prominent politicians. While many cited political reasons, critics believe the moves are largely driven by re-election ambitions.
Baba-Ahmed warned that the APC’s assumption that defections guarantee victory is flawed. “Defection does not guarantee APC’s re-election. They think having all the governors, legislators, and money will automatically bring them back to power. But they still have to face the people,” he said.
He recalled the 2015 elections, noting that Muhammadu Buhari’s victory came from genuine voter support rather than elite structures. He added that APC’s current unpopularity among ordinary Nigerians is a major risk. “The APC is presently very unpopular. It is a party of the elite, a party of officeholders. If they believe money and politicians alone will buy votes, they are mistaken. Citizens can reach a breaking point and reject such assumptions,” he warned.
Baba-Ahmed outlined two critical tasks for the APC:
- Improve public perception of its record. He said the party’s performance has been poor and does not command grassroots support.
- Ensure free and fair elections. He cautioned that attempts to manipulate the process could backfire, stressing that credible polls are vital for legitimacy.
He further noted that many defecting governors face serious problems in their states, making it dangerous to assume their new APC affiliation guarantees victory. “Complacency and arrogance are the two main risks. They have not performed well, and now they wear a different jersey, thinking they can win. That is already contributing to setbacks,” he concluded.
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